Fiction and Non-Fiction

Month: April 2025

Tracking Timelines

Over the past few weeks I’ve been reading some books on a couple of topics that might turn into stories. It’s still early days yet but I’m already seeing the need for a timeline of some sort to track the sequence of events.

The first topic is the English Civil War, or more correctly, as I’ve learned, the British Civil War. For this tracking it made sense to use Aeon Timeline. I’ve owned the software for several years and for tracking people, battles, and events, and the relationships between them, it’s ideal for this level of detail

The second topic is more nebulous. I have a couple of dates and some events but I’m not sure yet how they are related, or even if they are or should be. While I have a pretty clear idea where I’m going with et British Civil War idea, I’m not so sure about this second one, and Aeon is clearly overkill.

What I need is something really simple, and not surprisingly an article about Obsidian gave me the answer. I set up notes with the title being the date and a very short description. In the body of the note I link to another note that describes the topic. Within that note I can now display a table of all linked items in date order and I have a lightweight timeline I can add to easily.

The Little Things

I’m currently reading the first volume of Ronald Hutton’s excellent biography of Oliver Cromwell. One of the many things that make this book stand out, not just from other Cromwell biographies, but also biographies of other famous people, is how Hutton balances accepted narrative against the documented evidence. Much of what has been written about Oliver Cromwell, especially after the restoration of the British monarchy in 1660, either makes Cromwell out to be a saint, or an agent of the devil.

As with most people, I suspect the truth lies somewhere in between, and that is where Hutton takes us.

The reason for mentioning this is that Hutton intersperses the dry narrative with almost fiction like descriptions of the countryside and lands that Cromwell rode through during his time as a cavalry commander in the Parliamentary Armies. The battle of Edgehill (October 23, 1642) is covered in some depth as are the battles of Marston Moor (July 2, 1644) and Naseby (June 14, 1645). It’s Hutton’s description of Marston Moor that caught my attention, and triggered this piece.

The first thing you’d notice, Hutton tells us, is likely the smell. Thousands of unwashed men and horses standing for twelve or more hours, sweating and answering calls of nature and enveloped in powder smoke from the cannon fire. Powder smoke and deposits that get in the eyes, nose, and mouth, and when swallowed act as a powerful and fast acting laxative.

I don’t write many battle scenes, although there’s a couple of projects coming up where that’s likely to change. The points Hutton describes would never have occurred to me to include in the narrative of a battle scene. And it’s not just the British Civil War, think about the Confederate Brigades waiting to charge Cemetery Ridge on the third day of Gettysburg, and breathing the smoke from over 150 cannon bombarding the Union positions for two hours.

It’s these little pieces of information, unpleasant though they may be, that help bring our writing alive and keep the reader engaged. I’ll certainly bear them in mind when I write the next battle scene.

Checking Reality

This wasn’t the blog I intended to write this week, but circumstances triggered a thought process and so here we are.

I was reading a book on investment strategies this week and came across an interesting strategy call the All Seasons Portfolio. I hadn’t heard of it before so I did some research. All Seasons is a simplified version of Ray Dalio’s All Weather portfolio with the idea you allocate your portfolio as

  • 30% Stocks
  • 40% Long Term Bonds (over 20 years)
  • 15% Short Term Bonds (3 – 7 years)
  • 7.5% Gold
  • 7.5% Commodity Index

You can replicate this distribution fairly easily using ETF’s. The article recommended a specific ETF for each category (VTIP, TLT, IEI, GLD, and GSG), and rebalancing on an annual basis. As I am looking for a place to invest some liquid funds, I decided to check it out.

The first step was to find a date when all five of the recommended ETF’s were trading and that came out to be late 2012, so I picked December 1 as the start date. It took a little effort but with the help of Yahoo Finance, I was able to get the closing prices for each ETF on December 1 (or the nearest date) from 2012 to 2024 and put them into a spreadsheet.

After that, it was a simple exercise to determine my hypothetical investment capital of $5,000, calculate the allocations, and annual rebalancing. It probably took me an hour or so to get it all put together, and the results surprised me. On December 2, 2024, the value of the portfolio was $2,320.26, a loss of 54%.

Can’t be right. I checked my logic and checked my calculations and had someone else look them over as well. They agreed my logic and calculations looked correct, and so Wow!

We are always reminded to fact check and reality check politicians. This exercise reminded me how important it is to reality check investment recommendations as well.

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